While petrol and diesel prices are lower than those seen immediately in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the RAC says motorists are still being overcharged and accused supermarket chains of taking overly generous profit margins.
The company, which campaigns on behalf of motorists, has for some time called on the UK's biggest retailers to cut the price of petrol to reflect lower wholesale costs, which have dropped towards the end of 2023. Although the Government cut fuel duty by 5p in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the RAC says the move has helped retailers more than drivers – it says the average retailer margin was 13p in a litre for petrol in December, compared to the long-term average of 7p a litre.
The December figures also show that prices on the UK mainland are 5p more expensive than in Northern Ireland
The organisation has called on the government to set up a price monitoring body with powers to take action against big retailers that don't reflect falling wholesale prices.
Although prices have dropped in the past few months, fuel is still more expensive then it was. The simple explanation is that the cost of a barrel of oil has risen. In 2020 the wholesale price of a barrel of crude oil was around $40.
At the start of January 2022 the cost of oil was $79 but this had risen to $92 by the end of the month and went above $100 per barrel after Russia (the second largest oil producer in the world) invaded neighbouring Ukraine in February 2022, making traders worried about disruption to the global supply chain.
The price of oil went on to hit $137.72 a barrel on 8 March 2022 – the highest it has been since 2008, although it fell to $109.98 by the end of the month.
In August 2022 the price of oil dropped under $100 and finished the month on $90.63 a barrel. Prices cames down further in 2023 and by May, the price of a barrel of oil was down to $72.50. At the end of October, prices were hovering around $90 a barrel by the end of 2023 it had dipped below $80.
When the price of oil rises, fuel retailers usually pass on the cost to consumers at the pumps although they can absorb some of the increases. However, when wholesale prices fall, retailers are reluctant to pass the savings on.
Indeed, fuel retailers have an important role to play in fuel prices. Competition between the 'big four' supermarkets Asda, Tesco, Morrisons and Sainsbury's has helped to reduce prices in the past – when one supermarket giant cuts their fuel prices others often follow.
In 2023, fuel retailers are once again being heavily criticised for not cutting the cost of fuel at the pumps when the price of oil is dropping.
On 15 December 2023, the cost of a litre of wholesale diesel was 112.3p while petrol was 103.8p.
The UK Government has a significant impact on fuel prices. This is because it controls two major components: fuel duty, which is currently at 52.95p per litre, and the standard 20% VAT rate. These two elements together make up the bulk of the price of petrol and diesel.
Fuel duty was frozen from March 2011 to March 2023, bringing some relief for drivers in the midst of rising prices, while the former Chancellor Rishi Sunak lowered it by 5ppl in the Spring Budget 2023.
When the Government introduced E10 petrol in England, Scotland and Wales in September 2021 it had an impact on fuel prices as ethanol is more expensive than petrol.
Other factors which influence wholesale prices, according to the RAC, are: oil refinery production and capacity, the pound to dollar exchange rate, as refined fuel is sold in US dollars per metric tonne and distribution costs.
Breakdown of the average UK price of petrol (140.29p. Source: RAC)
As of 7 January 2024, it now costs £77.16 to fill up a Ford Focus (55-litre fuel tank) with petrol and £81.52 to fill up with diesel.
In November 2023, the South East had the highest average diesel and petrol prices, with drivers paying 163.04ppl for diesel and 155.6ppl for petrol.
Northern Ireland is the cheapest place in the UK to buy fuel. In November 2023 the average price of petrol in Northern Ireland was 150.02p while diesel was 157.48p.
Cost of petrol and diesel in different parts of the UK in November 2023 (source: RAC Fuel Watch)
Supermarkets, in general, have the cheapest fuel prices. The big four supermarkets – Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury's and Tesco – all lowered prices after the 5p fuel duty cut. BP-owned and Shell-owned fuel stations also applied the 5p cut (6p including VAT).
However, the gap between supermarket fuel prices and the national average in December 2023 was just 2.7ppl for petrol (with the UK average being 140.29p and the average at supermarkets being 137.51p). The difference in the price of diesel was 2.33p (the average price at supermarkets was 148.22p against a national average price of 145.89p)
As of March 2024, the gap between supermarket fuel prices and the UK average is just 0.52ppl for petrol (with the UK average being 143.49p and the average at supermarkets being 142.97p). The difference in the price of diesel was 0.57p (the average price at supermarkets was 152.15p against the UK average price of 152.69p).
Average monthly petrol and diesel retail prices
An increase in the demand for fuel, both domestically and internationally, can cause prices to increase. Fluctuation may arise from interruptions in pipeline supply or refinery maintenance, leading to decreased availability and consequently higher bids for the limited supply.
Since the start of the new year 2024, fuel prices have dropped slightly, after straight months of rises in 2023. The latest fuel prices, as of March 2023, are 142.97p per litre for petrol and 152.69p for diesel.
Compared to the start of 2023, prices for petrol in 2024 remain considerably lower – in January 2023, the average price was 155.46p per litre, and that dropped to a low of 143.99p in July. Diesel has been more unstable – it cost an average of 178.94p in January, and just 146.40p in July.
How often do pump prices change in the UK? Fuel prices change whenever there is a significant increase or reduction in the wholesale price of petrol or diesel. Retailers can update their prices to reflect these changes as often as they like.
The price you pay per litre of petrol and diesel depends on wholesale fuel prices (i.e. the price retailers pay to get fuel) which are themselves affected by: the global crude oil price, which fluctuates according to supply and demand of crude oil.
There are 8 factors that affect fuel prices:
Even a small change in any of these is reflected in the price of fuel at the pump.
Fuel is a critical piece of the world economy and a primary source of energy that powers various industries and enables households to sustain their daily lives. However, fuel prices are the result of constantly fluctuating and complex factors on a global scale. Here’s how fluctuations in fuel prices affect various industries:
Fuel prices determine the cost of transportation for vehicle owners — and how much travelling they’re willing to do. High fuel prices means higher expenses for drivers and can strain a person’s budgets. Long-distance travel, holidays, and business trips can become more expensive (and less likely to happen or infrequent) due to high fuel prices.
RAC Fuel Watch, the AA, Experian Catalyst
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